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12 Aug 2014
Australian business confidence survey eyed - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, reviews the key events on the day ahead, including July Australian business confidence survey from NAB.
Key Quotes
At 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK we see the July Australian business confidence survey from NAB. There is no consensus forecast but lower profile surveys have improved somewhat. The index of business conditions has the best correlation with GDP. This improved to +2.3 in June from -0.8 in May when the federal budget was the main focus and retail sales contracted. The average for the past 20 years is +4.4, with a peak of +20.1 in 2007. The confidence index printed at +7.9 in June, not too far below its multi-year high of Sep 2013 of +12.8 (it reached -9 in Nov 2012), as business apparently found the May budget a lot less worrying than consumers did. The 20 year average is +5.9.
Released at the same time is the ABS’s measure of house prices for Q2, not our preferred survey despite a recent revamp. We look for +1.8% q/q, just over 10% y/y. This is above 1.0% q/q consensus but we have already seen reliable data on July, indicating a solid 1.6% m/m rise.
In Asia we will see the second (“final”) estimate of Singapore’s Q2 GDP. Consensus is for an upward revision to 2.3% y/y, -0.3% q/q annualized, from 2.1% y/y but surprises are frequent. India’s calendar is busy: July CPI (f/c 7.4% y/y vs 7.3% in June) and June industrial production (f/c 5.6% y/y vs 4.7%).
In Germany we will see the Aug ZEW survey of investor sentiment, with consensus for a sizeable deterioration in both the current situation and expectations indexes. The US data calendar is low key, with no USD impact likely from reports on small business optimism, job openings or the federal budget position.
Key Quotes
At 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK we see the July Australian business confidence survey from NAB. There is no consensus forecast but lower profile surveys have improved somewhat. The index of business conditions has the best correlation with GDP. This improved to +2.3 in June from -0.8 in May when the federal budget was the main focus and retail sales contracted. The average for the past 20 years is +4.4, with a peak of +20.1 in 2007. The confidence index printed at +7.9 in June, not too far below its multi-year high of Sep 2013 of +12.8 (it reached -9 in Nov 2012), as business apparently found the May budget a lot less worrying than consumers did. The 20 year average is +5.9.
Released at the same time is the ABS’s measure of house prices for Q2, not our preferred survey despite a recent revamp. We look for +1.8% q/q, just over 10% y/y. This is above 1.0% q/q consensus but we have already seen reliable data on July, indicating a solid 1.6% m/m rise.
In Asia we will see the second (“final”) estimate of Singapore’s Q2 GDP. Consensus is for an upward revision to 2.3% y/y, -0.3% q/q annualized, from 2.1% y/y but surprises are frequent. India’s calendar is busy: July CPI (f/c 7.4% y/y vs 7.3% in June) and June industrial production (f/c 5.6% y/y vs 4.7%).
In Germany we will see the Aug ZEW survey of investor sentiment, with consensus for a sizeable deterioration in both the current situation and expectations indexes. The US data calendar is low key, with no USD impact likely from reports on small business optimism, job openings or the federal budget position.