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30 Jul 2014
3+% US GDP print needed to ensure any growth at all in H1 - Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank expects today’s preliminary US Q2 GDP to come in at 4.2%, versus market consensus of a 3% increase.
Key quotes
“Notwithstanding any revisions to Q1's -2.9% print, we need a 3+% print to ensure any growth at all in H1.”
“The early year bad weather did clearly have an impact but a healthier economy would surely have taken it more in its stride over a 6 month period.”
“However on the plus side employment has been decent all year and the ADP report out today (+230k expected, DB at +250k) is likely to be seen as more important than GDP barring a big move or revision in the latter.”
“Our take on the US economy continues to be that it’s growing but that the trend rate of growth is currently structurally impaired and that the disappointments relative to expectations that have characterised this recovery will broadly continue.”
Key quotes
“Notwithstanding any revisions to Q1's -2.9% print, we need a 3+% print to ensure any growth at all in H1.”
“The early year bad weather did clearly have an impact but a healthier economy would surely have taken it more in its stride over a 6 month period.”
“However on the plus side employment has been decent all year and the ADP report out today (+230k expected, DB at +250k) is likely to be seen as more important than GDP barring a big move or revision in the latter.”
“Our take on the US economy continues to be that it’s growing but that the trend rate of growth is currently structurally impaired and that the disappointments relative to expectations that have characterised this recovery will broadly continue.”