There are three options for greening road transportation, namely full or partial electrification, more efficient fuel combustion and the rollout of fuel cell infrastructure. Every option will lead to the scarcity of some metals and a geopolitical dependency but a combination of these options would ease the scarcity and criticality of these metals. Strategists at ABN Amro think demand and prices will rise substantially for lithium, some rare earth metals and platinum group metals.

Fuel cell electric vehicles could replace vehicles with internal combustion engines leading to even more platinum demand

“We think that demand for electric vehicles will increase considerably from this very low level. This will lead to higher demand for lithium and rare earth elements. With this Australia, Chile and China will increase their strong supplier power.” 

“We think that battery technology will result in lower cobalt demand going forward so the DR Congo should slowly but surely lose its supplier power. Demand for electric vehicles will mainly be for the use in the city or for short distances.”

“In the coming years, demand for platinum, palladium and rhodium will also increase. The more stringent emission regulations for internal combustion engines will demand higher loadings of these platinum group metals.” 

“Vehicles with internal combustion engines are still needed for longer distance travel as long as the fuel cell infrastructure is not rolled out. Demand for fuel cell vehicles will also result in higher demand for platinum. There is already a supply shortage in these metals, and this will only increase resulting in higher prices.”