EUR/USD: Still scope for a move to 1.1492 – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe EUR/USD could still head towards the vicinity of the 1.1500 region in the near-term.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Our expectation for EUR ‘to drift lower’ last Friday was incorrect as it rebounded strongly after touching a low of 1.1376. Upward momentum has improved albeit not by much. From here, EUR could edge above 1.1450 but the year-to-date high at 1.1492 is highly unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 1.1400 but the stronger level is at 1.1380.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “On Wednesday (15 Jul, spot at 1.1410) we indicated that EUR ‘is expected to trade with a positive note’. However, we held the view that ‘the current momentum may not be enough to carry EUR above the year-to-date high of 1.1492’. EUR subsequently tried but failed to break clearly above 1.1450 (high of 1.1451 on Wednesday and 1.1442 yesterday). Upward momentum has been dented but for now there is no change in our view wherein there is still chance for EUR to move closer to 1.1492. Only a break of 1.1320 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate the current upward pressure has dissipated.”