USD/CHF: Negative bias – Commerzbank

USD/CHF last week sold off to the .9613 January low, which held the initial test. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, believes there is a large top developing at that point.

Key quotes

“While we would allow for a bounce from here into the .9710/.9735 band, this increasingly looks to be a large top developing.”

“A close below .9613 would be treated as a very negative step. Below .9613 will target initially the September 2018 low at .9543 and eventually the .9188 2018 low.”

“Our bias remains negative. Rallies will find initial resistance at the 55-day ma at .9737 and are expected to remain capped by tougher resistance at .9841/44, the September and October lows and the 200-day ma at .9948.”