Malaysia: Economy likely expanded at a similar pace to Q3 in Q4 – Standard Chartered

Jonathan Koh, economist at Standard Chartered, estimate Malaysia’s Q4 2018 GDP growth of 4.4% y/y, which is similar to Q3.

Key Quotes

“Private consumption may have eased from the 9% y/y growth in Q3 as the boost from the ‘tax holiday’ in June-August 2018 likely faded. Nevertheless, a rebound in mining and agriculture activity may have supported growth.”

“As a result, 2018 GDP growth may come in at 4.6% y/y, lower than 5.9% in 2017. Private consumption was the main growth driver in 2018, accounting for 92% of GDP growth in 9M-2018 versus 64% in 9M-2017, benefiting from the ‘tax-holiday’ boost and strong labour market conditions.”

“We forecast 4.9% GDP growth in 2019. Private consumption is likely to remain the main growth pillar.”

“We maintain our call for Bank Negara Malaysia to keep rates on hold in 2019, with risks skewed towards a cut, especially if external demand worsens further and affects domestic activity.”