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7 Feb 2019
BoE QIR: Forecast sees GDP in 2019 +1.2% (vs November forecast of +1.7%)
Below are some key takeaways, via Reuters, from the Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation report.
- Forecast sees GDP in 2019 +1.2 pct (Nov forecast +1.7 pct), 2020 +1.5 pct (Nov +1.7 pct), 2021 +1.9 pct (Nov +1.7 pct).
- Cut in 2019 GDP growth forecast is the biggest reduction since Aug 2016, would represent weakest annual growth since 2009.
- Market rates imply slower BoE tightening than in Nov, point to bank rate at 1.1 pct by late 2021 (nov 1.4 pct).
- Monetary policy response to Brexit not automatic, could be in either direction.
- CPI inflation rate expected to fall below 2 pct target in near term due to fuel prices.
- Forecast shows inflation in one year's time at 2.35 pct (Nov forecast 2.10 pct), based on market interest rates.
- BpE inflation report: projects wage growth +3.0 pct in Q4 2019 (Nov +3.25 pct), +3.25 pct yy in Q4 2020 (Nov +3.5 pct), +3.75 pct in Q4 2021 (Nov +3.75 pct).