GBP/USD back into familiar territory below 1.38
- Sterling bulls' hopes for a May rate hike dashed against the rocks of a souring UK economy.
- UK PMIs this week promise little shelter for fleeing Sterling traders.
The Sterling is trading quietly in Monday's early session, cycling around 1.3775 after Friday's dump saw the GBP shed nearly two hundred pips against the Greenback.
Swing Trades: GBP/USD
The GBP/USD accelerated recent losses to cap off last week following a GDP release with the worst growth figure in five years, with the UK's quarterly GDP printing at 0.1% versus the expected 0.5%. A new week begins with the Sterling having fallen over four percent since April's high of 1.4375.
Monday's European session is a decidedly quiet affair for the GBP with nothing scheduled on the economic calendar, but the GBP's recent rout is a warning sign for would-be bullish traders as the Bank of England (BoE) heads into their next rate call, and it looks increasingly like the BoE is going to have to hold off on a May rate increase, which was priced in on traders' expectations of a rate hike, and now looks unlikely to happen following a vicious cycle of worse-than-expected macro figures for the UK's economy within recent weeks.
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: With UK economy decelerating, rate hike in May is a joking option
Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs are scattered throughout the week, beginning with the Markit Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday at 08:30 GMT (forecast 55.3, prev. 55.1). A continued piling-up of drooping figures for the UK will continue to punish the Sterling moving forward, but first the US session will see the Core Personal Consumption Price Index on Monday at 12:30 GMT (expected 1.8%, prev. 1.6) which could derail the GBP against the Greenback early if the figures beat expectations.
GBP/USD analysis: UK data disappointed big, no rate hike at sight
GBP/USD Levels to watch
Evaporated expectations for a rate hike from the BoE in May and swooning macro figures for the UK's economy are looking set to continue hammering the Sterling, and as FXStreet's Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik noted, "the GBP/USD pair is technically bearish according to the daily chart, as the pair settled far below its 20 DMA, which slowly gyrates south, while technical indicators maintain their strong downward slopes near oversold readings. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the risk is also leaned to the downside, as a bearish 20 SMA has been steadily capping the upside, now around 1.3900, while technical indicators stalled their recoveries from extreme oversold levels and the RSI already turned south, currently at 23. The pair bottomed at 1.3746 last Friday, making of the level and immediate support and the one to break to confirm additional declines ahead."
Support levels: 1.3745 1.3710 1.3680
Resistance levels: 1.3820 1.3860 1.3900