US: Limelight on durable goods orders, jobless claims and trade balance – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US durable goods orders excluding volatile transportation components to increase 0.5% m-o-m in March, consistent with steady growth in the industrial sector.

Key Quotes

“The March industrial production report showed steady output of durable goods excluding transportation. Moreover, the ISM new orders index in March remained elevated at 61.9. For total durable goods orders, we forecast a 0.8% m-o-m reading, as increases in motor vehicles and parts orders will likely help offset expected declines in orders for civilian and defense aircraft.”

“Initial jobless claims: Initial jobless claims remain subdued in light of a tight labor market and steady job growth. Over the medium term, we continue to expect low readings as the labor market tightens further.”

“Advance goods trade balance and inventories: Incoming container data at major US ports have been somewhat mixed. It appears likely that the imports of goods may have declined more than the slowdown in exports. Altogether, we forecast a narrowing of the trade deficit to $74.0bn in March, from $75.9bn in February.”