US Consumer Confidence: Look for only modest slippage - RBS

Research Team at RBS, notes that after jumping by five points in June, consumer confidence held up in July, and we look for only modest slippage in the upcoming report.

Key Quotes

“In August, several crosscurrents likely influenced household attitudes. On the positive side, still-low jobless claims and another strong July employment report (with payrolls up 255,000 in July on top of a 292,000 rise in June) probably kept perceptions of the labor market in a positive light. Retail gasoline prices and mortgage rates have also remained low. At the same time, however, the negative election campaign rhetoric could bring greater attention to economic vulnerabilities and geopolitical uncertainties.

Indeed, the August University of Michigan survey showed “references to the presidential election continue to be a source of uncertainty about future economic policies.” Other gauges of consumer psychology have been mixed so far in August, as the Bloomberg consumer comfort index improved (45.3 in late-August versus 43.0 in late-July) but the University of Michigan sentiment barometer showed little net change (89.8 in August versus 90.0 in July).”