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21 Mar 2016
USD/JPY eyes 118.00 in the medium-term – Danske Bank
Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, expects the pair to climb higher towards the 118.00 area in a 6-12 month horizon.
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY has continued to fall sharply in March as most other central banks, including the Fed, have turned more dovish”.
“We now expect the BoJ to cut interest by 20bp on 28 April as a response to a weaker growth outlook and the risk of low wage growth. The effect on the currency might be limited in the short run as the BoJ currently is fighting gravity as fundamental factors and flows (among others stemming from a rising current account surplus) and stretched valuations provide substantial support to the yen at the moment”.
“We forecast USD/JPY at 112 in 1M (previously 116) and 115 in 3M (117). Longer term, fiscal headwinds are looming in terms of a possible vat increase in April 2017. At the same time, we expect the Fed to resume its hiking cycle in September”.
“This will probably help in turning the tide for the JPY, allowing it to remain significantly undervalued for a prolonged period. Hence, with the support from cyclical divergence and relative monetary policy we continue see a case for a higher USD/JPY over the medium-term horizon. We now forecast USD/JPY at 118 in 6-12M (120)”.
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY has continued to fall sharply in March as most other central banks, including the Fed, have turned more dovish”.
“We now expect the BoJ to cut interest by 20bp on 28 April as a response to a weaker growth outlook and the risk of low wage growth. The effect on the currency might be limited in the short run as the BoJ currently is fighting gravity as fundamental factors and flows (among others stemming from a rising current account surplus) and stretched valuations provide substantial support to the yen at the moment”.
“We forecast USD/JPY at 112 in 1M (previously 116) and 115 in 3M (117). Longer term, fiscal headwinds are looming in terms of a possible vat increase in April 2017. At the same time, we expect the Fed to resume its hiking cycle in September”.
“This will probably help in turning the tide for the JPY, allowing it to remain significantly undervalued for a prolonged period. Hence, with the support from cyclical divergence and relative monetary policy we continue see a case for a higher USD/JPY over the medium-term horizon. We now forecast USD/JPY at 118 in 6-12M (120)”.