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23 Feb 2016
Changing of focuses in the markets - ANZ
Analysts at ANZ Bank explained that about the one thing we can say about market trends since the start of year has been the lack of one.
Key Quotes:
"That is not to say that there has not been enough for markets to focus on – far from it. There are a number of potential drivers that have been dictating market moves of late. These range from whether the US economy is large and resilient enough to counter headwinds elsewhere, the impact of geopolitical considerations (of late, Brexit, US politics and whether oil producers will be able to co-ordinate production cuts), whether economies are being driven by cyclical or structural influences, and if central bank actions still pack a punch."
"Sometimes the market will focus on one particular theme, sometimes several, with the upshot being a general lack of direction if these drivers give conflicting signals. Recent market action has been a case in point, with risk aversion late last week paving the way to improved sentiment overnight, taking equities and oil prices along for the ride."
"So far market volatility looks to have had a limited impact on the economic outlook, although the loss of economic momentum signalled by the European and US PMI data overnight was a worrying sign. With no immediate circuit breaker on the horizon to provide clearer trends, and the potential for headlines to continue to drive overall sentiment, the risk is that we could be stuck in the same holding pattern in six to 12 months’ time from now. A lack of clear direction and elevated volatility can be costly in markets, but it can also be fatal in economies."
Key Quotes:
"That is not to say that there has not been enough for markets to focus on – far from it. There are a number of potential drivers that have been dictating market moves of late. These range from whether the US economy is large and resilient enough to counter headwinds elsewhere, the impact of geopolitical considerations (of late, Brexit, US politics and whether oil producers will be able to co-ordinate production cuts), whether economies are being driven by cyclical or structural influences, and if central bank actions still pack a punch."
"Sometimes the market will focus on one particular theme, sometimes several, with the upshot being a general lack of direction if these drivers give conflicting signals. Recent market action has been a case in point, with risk aversion late last week paving the way to improved sentiment overnight, taking equities and oil prices along for the ride."
"So far market volatility looks to have had a limited impact on the economic outlook, although the loss of economic momentum signalled by the European and US PMI data overnight was a worrying sign. With no immediate circuit breaker on the horizon to provide clearer trends, and the potential for headlines to continue to drive overall sentiment, the risk is that we could be stuck in the same holding pattern in six to 12 months’ time from now. A lack of clear direction and elevated volatility can be costly in markets, but it can also be fatal in economies."