US: Strong ADP employment data expected – Lloyds Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Analysts at Llyods Bank, expect today’s release of US ADP employment figures for August will attract even more scrutiny than usual as they will act as a critical input into the FOMC’s policy rate decision on September 17.

Key Quotes

“According to the ADP, private sector payrolls rose by 185k in July, which was the smallest increase since 179k in April. We have pencilled in a rebound to 220k in August, which is stronger than the consensus.”

“Following last week’s upbeat durable goods orders print for July, the more comprehensive factory orders release is expected to show that manufacturing demand started Q3 on a reasonably solid footing.”

“The FOMC will also be interested in the final estimates of Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labour cost growth where the upward revision to Q2 GDP growth from 2.3% to 3.7% should be matched by a sizeable and welcome rise in hourly productivity growth from its previous 1.3% preliminary Q2 estimate.”

“Commensurately, unit labour costs are set to soften on the quarter. The latest Fed Beige Book, which covers early July through to mid-August, will provide some further colour on the recent slew of fairly upbeat US domestic releases.”