Key events ahead: US retail sales and UK CPI – Danske

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, Sverre Holbek, previews the key data releases of the day, mentioning that a rebound in US retail sales is essential to keep recovery growth on track.

Key Quotes

“The main release is US retail sales for March. It is important we see a rebound to keep expectations of a growth recovery intact. Retail sales have disappointed in the past months and are part of the reason why US Q1 growth is tracking only around 1% currently.”

“We do indeed expect a robust rebound in March as February sales were held down by bad weather and fundamentals for consumers are quite strong currently: gasoline prices are low, wealth gains strong and the employment growth is solid.”

“The US also releases PPI and NFIB business optimism but these are less important.”

“In the UK inflation data for March will reveal whether the UK has fallen into deflation or not. We expect that this was not the case as we estimate inflation was unchanged at 0.0% y/y. Higher fuel prices in March are expected to compensate for the price cuts announced by the largest British gas companies. We expect core inflation to have remained unchanged at 1.2%.”

“In the Scandi markets, Swedish March inflation data take centre stage.”