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2 Apr 2015
US economy to begin its rebound – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the US ADP report and ISM data release, Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, mentions that US NFP might add some short-term volatility to the USD trend, but the underlying bull trend remains intact as the economy is set to rebound.
Key Quotes
“The latest ADP survey estimated that private payroll growth has eased to 189k in March reaching its lowest level since January of last year. However, more recently the ADP survey has proven not to be as accurate at estimating actual employment strength. It has materially underestimated actual employment growth especially over the last couple of months.”
“Another strong employment report still appears likely when it is released tomorrow, even if it reveals the pace of job growth has eased a little in March following very robust job gains towards the end of last year.”
“The NFP report is unlikely to change the underlying trend in favour of a stronger US dollar although can create some short-term volatility.”
“The ISM manufacturing survey declined by a further 1.4 point to 51.5 in March reaching its lowest level since May 2013. Weakness in the manufacturing sector which accounts for only around 12% of GDP will dampen growth but will not drive the overall performance of the economy.”
“We continue to expect the US economy to begin rebounding after a poor start to the year. There was further encouraging evidence yesterday when total vehicle sales rebounded in March reversing the slowdown over the previous three months. “
Key Quotes
“The latest ADP survey estimated that private payroll growth has eased to 189k in March reaching its lowest level since January of last year. However, more recently the ADP survey has proven not to be as accurate at estimating actual employment strength. It has materially underestimated actual employment growth especially over the last couple of months.”
“Another strong employment report still appears likely when it is released tomorrow, even if it reveals the pace of job growth has eased a little in March following very robust job gains towards the end of last year.”
“The NFP report is unlikely to change the underlying trend in favour of a stronger US dollar although can create some short-term volatility.”
“The ISM manufacturing survey declined by a further 1.4 point to 51.5 in March reaching its lowest level since May 2013. Weakness in the manufacturing sector which accounts for only around 12% of GDP will dampen growth but will not drive the overall performance of the economy.”
“We continue to expect the US economy to begin rebounding after a poor start to the year. There was further encouraging evidence yesterday when total vehicle sales rebounded in March reversing the slowdown over the previous three months. “