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4 Feb 2015
NOK appreciation remains on the cards – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the NOK gathering pace in the longer run, backed by the solid fundamentals in the Nordic economy.
Key Quotes
“The NOK has rallied in the past couple of days. In our view, the key driver has been the sharp rise in the oil price”.
“However, Norwegian data have also surprised on the upside. The January PMI indicator rose to 51.9 from 49.8, indicating that the Norwegian economy is not falling off a cliff despite the oil price collapse”.
“Norway's economy outside oil, e.g. private consumption, housing market, exports ex. oil, is holding up well”.
“Meanwhile, FX flows suggest that positioning in NOK is light. We are expecting long-term NOK appreciation but a final drift up in EUR/NOK ahead of Norges Bank decision in March”.
“We are currently reviewing whether the NOK rally has already arrived”.
Key Quotes
“The NOK has rallied in the past couple of days. In our view, the key driver has been the sharp rise in the oil price”.
“However, Norwegian data have also surprised on the upside. The January PMI indicator rose to 51.9 from 49.8, indicating that the Norwegian economy is not falling off a cliff despite the oil price collapse”.
“Norway's economy outside oil, e.g. private consumption, housing market, exports ex. oil, is holding up well”.
“Meanwhile, FX flows suggest that positioning in NOK is light. We are expecting long-term NOK appreciation but a final drift up in EUR/NOK ahead of Norges Bank decision in March”.
“We are currently reviewing whether the NOK rally has already arrived”.