USD/CHF softens to near 0.6400 amid tariff uncertainty
- USD/CHF trades with mild losses near 0.6410 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- Trade tensions and rising uncertainty boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF.
- US ADP Employment Change, PCE and the preliminary reading of Q1 GDP will be the highlights later on Wednesday.
The USD/CHF pair posts modest losses around 0.6410 during the early European session on Wednesday. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy continues to boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The Swiss KOF Leading Indicator for April is due later on Wednesday.
China exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs last week, although China quickly knocked down US President Donald Trump's assertion that trade talks between the two countries were underway. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that key trade partners have made "very good" offers to avoid US tariffs. Markets remain cautious, particularly as conflicting messages from Washington and Beijing add to uncertainty. This, in turn, provides some support to the safe-haven currency like the CHF and creates a headwind for USD/CHF.
Traders await the US economic data later on Wednesday, including the US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), and the preliminary reading of Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). All eyes will be on the US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. The NFP is expected to show 130K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to remain at 4.2%. In case of a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback against the CHF in the near term.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.