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23 Jan 2025
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls toward $30.50 as US Dollar rises on hawkish Fed
- Silver prices decline as the US Dollar strengthens, with expectations that the Fed will maintain its rate in January.
- Silver demand could rise due to persistent concerns over supply issues, especially in London vaults, coupled with robust industrial demand.
- Premiums for Silver futures following reports that Trump would postpone new tariffs.
Silver price (XAG/USD) pauses its three-day rally, trading around $30.60 during the Asian session on Thursday. Dollar-denominated Silver encounters challenges as the US Dollar is likely to strengthen, with traders anticipating that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range during its January meeting.
Additionally, US President Donald Trump’s policies could increase inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Fed to just one more rate cut. This could bolster the Greenback and reduce demand for commodities like Silver.
However, Silver demand may be strengthened by ongoing concerns about supply issues, particularly in London vaults, along with strong industrial demand, especially in manufacturing, which has supported the grey metal.
Initially, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats had pushed premiums for Silver futures higher as traders prepared for possible disruptions. However, reports that Trump would postpone new tariffs helped alleviate some of the pressure, leading to a reduction in premiums.
On Tuesday night, President Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as duties on the European Union. He also revealed intentions to implement a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting February 1, citing concerns over fentanyl shipments from China to Mexico and Canada, according to Reuters.
In reaction, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang cautioned on Tuesday about the potential consequences of a trade war, stating that "there are no winners" in such conflicts. His comments come as China prepares for the possibility of new tariffs under the Trump administration, as reported by CNBC.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.