IEA and OPEC oil market reports are out – ING

Yesterday both the IEA and OPEC released their monthly oil market report, ING’s commodity analyst Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

OPEC demand growth estimate for 2025 remains unchanged

“The IEA warned of potential supply disruptions following the latest US sanctions on the Russian energy sector, while the agency also revised higher its demand growth forecasts on the back of colder weather across the northern hemisphere. The IEA estimates that 2024 oil demand grew by 940k b/d, up by 90k b/d from its previous estimate. Meanwhile, 2025 demand is expected to grow by 1.05m b/d.”

“In its monthly report, OPEC decided to leave its demand growth estimate for 2025 unchanged at 1.45m b/d YoY, while in its first forecast for 2026, the group expects demand next year to grow by 1.43m b/d YoY. The group also left its supply growth estimates unchanged for non-OPEC+ members at 1.11m b/d for 2025, while for 2026, supply is expected to grow by a similar amount.”

“OPEC production saw marginal growth in December, increasing by 26k b/d MoM to 26.74m b/d. Meanwhile, total OPEC+ production fell by 14k b/d to 40.65m b/d – driven by lower output from Kazakhstan. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 is 42.5m b/d and 42.7m b/d in 2026.”