US Dollar in downtrend on quiet Monday, markets eye GDP, PCE data
- Data on US income, spending, consumer confidence, and Q1 GDP will shape the index’s trajectory this week.
- Fed's Beige Book report on Wednesday is anticipated to suggest a balanced economic backdrop.
- Investors anticipate less than 80% odds of November rate cut and 50% chance of cut in September.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is seeing some losses on Monday as US markets remain closed for the Memorial Day break. Market participants anticipate Thursday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data in hope of additional insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance and the economy's health. The Beige Book report on Wednesday will also be eagerly anticipated.
The US economy, backed by robust data, allows the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance, which cushions the US Dollar. Despite some signs of labor market softening and dampened consumer spending, inflation remains high, which justifies Fed officials’ continued talk of patience.
Daily digest market movers: DXY is mildly down ahead of key data this week, eyes on Fed officials
- Officials from the Fed, including Mester, Bowman, Kashkari, Cook and Daly, are expected to continue advocating for a cautious approach in their scheduled speeches throughout the week. Markets continue to adjust their expectations, odds of September cut stand around 50%.
- April’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report is expected on Friday. Projections remain at 2.7% YoY for headline inflation, 2.8% for core.
- Q1 GDP is expected to be revised to 1.3% on Thursday.
- Outcome of high-tier data will continue modeling expectations on easing cycle, dictating pace of USD.
DXY technical analysis: Greenback witnesses selling pressure, while bulls struggle
The daily chart indicators display escalating bearish momentum in the DXY. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on a negative slope and remains in negative territory, suggesting that selling pressure prevails. This is further confirmed by the flat red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
In regard to Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the DXY is operating beneath the 20-day SMA, indicating bears’ short-term efficiency. Despite this, DXY remains above the 100 and 200-day SMAs, suggesting bulls have relative strength over a more extended timeline.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.