UK economic data releases could unsettle the GBP this week – Rabobank

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has had a good start to the year and is currently the second best performing G10 currency after the US Dollar (USD) in 2024 to date. Economists at Scotiabank analyze GBP outlook.

Looking to sell rallies in EUR/GBP in the coming months

The Pound faces a couple of potential headwinds this week in the shape of UK economic data releases. Firstly, the consensus forecast for the release of UK January CPI inflation on February 14 suggests an uptick in both the headline and core rates. Secondly, surveys suggest that the release of the UK Q4 GDP number later in the week could confirm a technical recession for the economy in the latter part of last year.

Weak UK GDP data suggests some potential for profit-taking in long GBP positions. That said, we would favour buying GBP on dips vs. the EUR and look for a move in EUR/GBP to 0.8400 in the latter part of this year.