When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?
September month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.
Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas Employment Change could ease with 25K figures versus 33.5K prior. Further, the Participation Rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 66.6%.
Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recently cautious comments, via the latest Minutes and Deputy Governor Guy Bullock’s speech, coupled with the trouble in China, today’s Aussie jobs report become crucial for the AUD/USD pair traders.
In addition to the employment data, National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence for the third quarter (Q3), expected 7 versus 5 prior, will also entertain the AUD/USD pair traders.
Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,
Illness-related absences likely continued to impact the labour market in September, with both Westpac and the market anticipating employment to lift by an underwhelming 25k. This should also weigh on participation, seeing the unemployment rate round down (Westpac f/c: 3.4%, market 3.5%).
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Ahead of the data, AUD/USD depressed around 0.6270, despite the recent bounce off weekly low, as traders await the key Australia employment report during early Thursday. That said, the Aussie pair printed the first daily loss on turnaround Wednesday amid a risk-off mood. However, anxiety ahead of an important data set for Australia seems to chain the bears of late.
That said, hopes of an upbeat Aussie jobs report could propel the AUD/USD to be fewer amid the broad pessimism surrounding economic slowdown and 75 bps Fed rate hike in September, not to forget doubts over the RBA’s next move. However, strong prints of the Employment Change and softer Unemployment Rate won’t go unnoticed and hence can provide a knee-jerk upside to the quote.
Considering this, FXStreet’s Valeria Bednarik says,
Encouraging data may give AUD/USD a well-needed boost, as the pair trades near the two-year low posted this month at 0.6169, but would it be enough to take it out of its misery?
A pullback from the 10-DMA, around 0.6285 by the press time, directs AUD/USD towards support line of the six-week-old bearish channel, close to 0.6060 at the latest.
Key Notes
Australian Employment Preview: Near-term relief to the long-lasting pain
AUD/USD: On the back foot below 0.6300 ahead of Australia employment, PBOC
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).